This is an
update on my thoughts about our current secular crisis. The basic idea is that our culture cycles
through four cultural eras, labeled the high, the awakening, the unraveling,
and the secular crisis. These four eras
are equated with the four seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter. And, we are in winter. The idea comes from the work of Neil Howe and
William Strauss, especially a book called The
Fourth Turning (here). I have
described American eras previously (here).
The most
important idea to take away about the secular crisis era is that it is a
cultural identity crisis. It may have powerful
economic and/or political issues to resolve but ultimately it is about who we
are as a people that is the core of the problem. I summarized much of this previously (here).
To reiterate
I think our current crisis is about the question: is America, the US, still Number
One?
We have had horrific events, such as the World
Trade Center attack, the War on Terrorism, the Great Recession, the FED stupidly
owning everything, and we can expect an episode of genocidal warfare.
We can also expect a status quo change, such as:
perhaps the US Dollar being replaced by something else; perhaps the US will see
a decline in international economic and political influence; perhaps some
wealthy people will be torn down from their gilded balconies.
The final resolution will be such that America becomes
a more powerful Superpower, or a fallen and shattered one, or just a less
influential player shunned by most others.
The fall (a full-blown collapse or just a big trip) can come quickly, as
evidenced by the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1999. Alternatively, we might
take over another large portion of the world.
My previous statements on this crisis had it begin
with 9/11 because after that event our government became much larger (a usual
sign of a crisis era). The Big Brother
effects of that event are still playing out, especially with the attention to
NSA lately. Homeland security is the
mantra as they take away our constitutional freedoms. A focus on this issue
means that the core question is: are we
a free people? I think the issue is bigger than this.
Many other people proclaim that the crisis era
began with the credit crisis of 2007 and the Great Recession that followed. We have been in a mild depression since 2007
and I think it eventually gets worse before the economic troubles are resolved. There is no doubt that fear and anxiety in
America (another important indicator of the crisis era) ratcheted up
significantly after the market crash of 2008.
A focus on economic issues is one way to view the crisis. Again, I see it as bigger than that.
Folks in the blogosphere who discuss these things ask
us to take sides, our “crisis began in 2001 or 2007”. Choose one.
I am not certain that we can make such proclamations,
especially as they would be used to suggest when the crisis ends.
The crisis ends when it does.
If we expect the era to last 20-25 years then it
spans 2001-2021 or to 2026.
On the other hand, it spans 2007-2027 or to 2032.
Either way we have a long way to go.
The difficulty in determining when it began has
more to do with our Dionysian age rather than micro analyzing each weird event
that has happened.
In Apollonian ages, events will appear to be linear. It is easier to identify when a crisis begins
and ends. Our American Revolution and the
Great Depression-WWII are two crises that played out under Apollonian values.
During Dionysian ages, reflexive and reciprocal
relations are more active. Thus, events are not going to line up in obvious
linear sequences. When did the Glorious Revolution start and end? Or, how about
the slavery dispute-Civil War-reconstruction? Those crises did not have clear-cut
start/end dates, and neither does the current crisis.
It is best to just say, “It began in the early part
of the 21st century”.
Thirty years from now, we will have a good idea of
about when it ended.
